MeridianConsensus
Industry coverage3 commissioned studies · $32.4B in aggregate coverage

Aerospace & Defence.

A decade of deferred procurement is now clearing. We cover commercial-aviation cycles, defence-prime programmes, unmanned systems, space launch, and the dual-use technologies re-sorting the primes and the specialists.

Our view

Thesis on Aerospace & Defence.

A decade of deferred procurement is now clearing. We cover commercial-aviation cycles, defence-prime programmes, unmanned systems, space launch, and the dual-use technologies re-sorting the primes and the specialists.

Same methodology as every other Meridian verticalCommittee-reviewed before publication
What we research

Sub-sectors of Aerospace & Defence.

Every sub-sector below is commissionable as a standalone 30-chapter study, or scoped bespoke for investment-committee and diligence use.

Commercial Aviation

Narrow-body and wide-body cycles, engine OEM dynamics, MRO economics, order-book composition.

Defence Primes & Platforms

Land, sea, air programmes; munitions replenishment; allied procurement cycles and budget visibility.

Unmanned & Autonomous Systems

UAS/UGV/USV platforms, sensors, autonomy stacks, commercial and defence adoption curves.

Space Launch & Satellites

Launcher capacity, constellation economics, Earth-observation and communications payloads.

MRO & Aftermarket

Airframe, engine and component MRO cycles; parts pooling; OEM-aftermarket competitive dynamics.

Missiles, Munitions & Hypersonics

Production-line ramp, precision munitions, hypersonics race, allied-stockpile replenishment.

Interactive · live

A working aerospace & defence dashboard.

Every commissioned aerospace & defence study ships as an interactive dashboard, size and trajectory, ranked share, regional cuts, segmentation. Hover every bar to see the underlying figure; every number is traceable to a named source.

Interactive dashboard · live
Commercial + defence aerospace · specimen
MRI · Q2 2026
Overview
2025 size · 2026–2036 forecast · committee-signed
$773B
2019
$796B
2020
$819B
2021
$843B
2022
$868B
2023
$894B
2024
$920B
2025
$1.17T forecast
2030
$1.56T forecast
2036
Revenue trajectory (historical 2020 – Q1 2026 · forecast 2026–2036)
Headline figures
2025 size
$920B
2036 forecast
$1.56T +5.4% CAGR
Confidence
High
See a live report
Strategic themes · this quarter

What is moving in Aerospace & Defence.

The priorities our research committee is tracking across the sector this quarter. Sub-sectors describe structure; themes describe motion. Reports commissioned against these themes ship with the latest signal-read baked in.

01

Munitions replenishment 2024–2027

Western-stockpile rebuild driving multi-year contract visibility for primes and sub-tier suppliers.

02

GCAP and 6th-gen fighter programmes

Allied-block consolidation and the implications for legacy programme tails and engine OEMs.

03

LEO constellation consolidation

SpaceX Starlink dominance pressuring alternative constellation economics and launch-capacity pricing.

04

Hypersonics industrial base

US–China–Russia hypersonic weapons race driving specialty materials and test-infrastructure demand.

05

Starship commercial flight economics

Payload-mass unit-cost implications for satellite design, rideshare pricing, and launch-market share.

06

European defence sovereignty buildout

EDIRPA / EDIP / ASAP funding driving European-prime capacity expansion; procurement-away-from-US momentum on munitions, drones, and land platforms.

07

Commercial-aviation supply-chain catch-up

Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAX production-rate targets remain engine-, actuator-, and titanium-gated; 2026 narrow-body throughput visibility.

08

Counter-UAS sub-sector formation

NATO-driven counter-drone procurement creating a genuinely new sub-segment, RF, optics, directed-energy and kinetic interceptor economics.

In the library

Commissioned studies.

All markets
Who uses this research

Role-tested in Aerospace & Defence.

The four teams that most commonly commission aerospace & defence research. Each role below maps to a specific use-case the commissioned study is scoped against, from diligence to annual planning.

Corporate Development · A&D

Diligence on sub-systems, MRO, and defence-prime acquisitions with programme-backlog context.

Private Equity

Aerospace-supply-chain rollup thesis validation and aftermarket portfolio benchmarking.

Programme Office · Strategy

Programme sizing, competitor positioning, and allied-procurement-cycle visibility.

Investment Banking

Pitch materials for defence-industrial M&A; divestiture support; fairness-opinion peer context.

Commission research

A aerospace & defencemarket we haven’t yet covered?

Same methodology, same committee review, same written support. If you can describe the sub-sector, we can commission the study, accessible instantly on demand. Any geography, any boundary.

Adjacent coverage

Related verticals.

All industries

Intel Watchlist · from $89/mo

Track aerospace & defence continuously: never miss a deal, exec move, or filing.

Senior Analyst Support ships an always-on intel feed: M&A 8-Ks, exec moves, regulatory dockets, and patent filings on aerospace & defence. Email + Slack delivery. Cancel any time.

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